India's problem of plenty - three spinners or three seamers?

Three fast bowlers or three spinners? Play Akash Deep over Mohammed Siraj or go for a three-pronged pace attack with both along with Jasprit Bumrah? Pick one of Kuldeep Yadav or Axar Patel or stay with the tried and tested duo of R Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja.

India have a problem of plenty and will have a number of things to ponder upon when they finalise their playing XI for the first Test against New Zealand in Bengaluru starting October 16.

In home Tests, at least in the current World Test Championship [WTC] cycle, India have mostly gone with three spinners and two fast bowlers. The two Tests out of seven at home in which they played a third seamer was during the recently-concluded series against Bangladesh where they went with Deep, Siraj and Bumrah in the playing XI both times.

They were faced with a similar situation ahead of the second Bangladesh Test in Kanpur, which was a black soil pitch. There they went with all three pacers in the XI, with Ashwin and Jadeja as the two spinners.

In an ideal scenario, India would want to go with three spinners in their unit against New Zealand, especially with the kind of pitch on offer in Bengaluru. ESPNcricinfo has learned that the playing strip for the opening Test against New Zealand is like Kanpur, a black soil pitch. It is understood that the pitch is likely to be a slow turner along with low bounce where shot-making will not be as easy. While it won't be a rank turner, the surface is likely to support spinners as the Test match goes by.

India wouldn't mind that clearly considering New Zealand possess enough good quality seamers in Will O'Rourke, Ben Sears and Tim Southee, who can use any moisture in the surface to their advantage. In addition, New Zealand's spin game of late has been rather weak. In 12 innings this year, New Zealand have lost 67 of 104 wickets to spin - their most in five years.

Add to that the threat posed by the Indian spinners. Ashwin has the most wickets in this WTC cycle - 53 in ten games at 21.18. Jadeja has 35 in nine, Kuldeep has 19 in four while Axar has five in two Tests. A three-spin attack then you'd think would seem a no-brainer.

But the prevailing overcast and damp conditions could play a key role in forcing India to work out whether to pack their bowling unit with three seamers or three spinners.

There has been consistent rain in Bengaluru over the last week or so and the forecast for the next few days is of rain and plenty of cloud cover. On Monday - two days before the Test - the pitch was under covers for most of the morning because of a consistent drizzle. Around 1.45pm, when the covers were removed, India captain Rohit Sharma, head coach Gautam Gambhir and Rishabh Pant all had a close look at the surface while also having a lengthy discussion with the pitch curator.

The surface looked devoid of much grass, but being under covers and with the overhead conditions expected to be cloudy, there is a chance there could be some early assistance for the fast bowlers come Wednesday.

If that is indeed the case, India could well go with Deep, Siraj and Bumrah in the XI. While the Indian spinners have done the bulk of the damage in the WTC cycle, the quicks have not been far behind. Bumrah has 42 wickets in eight Tests in the WTC cycle, 30 of which have come in India at an average of 15.40. The last time Bumrah played a Test in Bengaluru back in 2022, he picked up eight wickets on a turning track.

Deep, on the other hand, has played all his three Tests in India and looked excellent while Siraj has 26 wickets in ten WTC Tests in this cycle. Both bowlers also know the M Chinnaswamy surface well having played for the Royal Challengers Bengaluru in the IPL.

If India do end up playing three spinners, there could also be a selection quandary as to which fast bowler to pick - the experienced Siraj or newbie Deep who has looked the part. Even with the spin unit, while Ashwin and Jadeja look set to start, do they play Kuldeep or Axar?

"Look, it [final playing XI] depends on the conditions, depends on the wicket, depends on the opposition as well. And the best part about this dressing room is that we've got so many high-quality players in there. We can select any of them and we know they can do the job for us," Gambhir said when asked about whether the overhead conditions could dictate India's playing XI.

"And that is what is called the depth. We'll have a look at the wicket tomorrow. Me and Rohit will have a chat and see what is the best combination to do the job at Chinnaswamy Stadium."

There has been only one Test played in Bengaluru in the last five years - a day-night Test in 2022 between India and Sri Lanka which the hosts won inside three days. The news point there was the ICC match referee Javagal Srinath rating that Bengaluru pitch "below average". Of the 39 wickets in the match, the spinners accounted for 26 of which 16 fell on the first day itself.

In a scathing assessment, Srinath, a former India and Karnataka fast bowler and also a former office bearer at the Karnataka State Cricket Association [KSCA], said the pitch "offered a lot of turn on the first day itself and though it improved with every session, in my view, it was not an even contest between bat and ball."

India went with three fast bowlers in the last two Tests that they won against Bangladesh. With rain in the air, and the weather damp and cloudy, they could stick to their guns and go with a similar attack. In any case, with the next two Tests scheduled for Pune and Mumbai, where the pitch is likely to take much more turn, it is likely India will switch back to a three-spin plan. But what would that attack look like?